The heartland used to be a Democratic stronghold but many now believe that the Democratic Party cannot compete in rural America. In 2004, 6 of 8 Senate seats in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska were held by Democrats. Today, that number is 0. We are trying to determine if the Democratic Party lost these states due to shifting ideologies amongst voters, or due to a lack of effort by the Party itself. We believe it is the latter.
Brian Bengs is running for U.S. Senate to give a voice to middle and working-class South Dakotans who have been forgotten for far too long. This is a competitive race with quality polling from veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake’s firm Lake Research Partners validating this fact. In the poll, only 41% of South Dakotans had a favorable opinion of Senator Thune, while 46% gave him an unfavorable rating. Among undecided voters, 22% have a favorable opinion while 59% have an unfavorable one. A mere 36% of voters say they would vote to re-elect Sen. Thune. A stunning 53% of voters indicated they would either vote to replace Sen. Thune or consider voting for someone else. After testing two positive frames for both Bengs and Sen. Thune—Bengs ultimately led Sen. Thune 43% to 41%.
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Thune’s close ties to Senator Mitch McConnell – whose favorability is solidly negative (13% favorable; 64% unfavorable) – make him even more vulnerable. A majority of Democrats (81%), Republicans (51%), and unaffiliated/other voters (76%) have an unfavorable impression of McConnell.
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Thune is net unfavorable among voters overall (41% favorable; 46% unfavorable). A majority of both registered Democrats (71%) and unaffiliated/other voters (53%) have an unfavorable impression of him, and even about a third of Republicans dislike him (32% unfavorable).
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The data shows a path for Bengs to defeat Thune, a huge upset to Republican leadership in the Senate. To get this done, Bengs needs resources and support from allies to launch and sustain an aggressive communications plan that defines him to voters and creates powerful contrasts with Thune through Election Day. You can click here to make a donation for Brian to have the resources he needs to defeat Sen. Thune.
The poll had a survey sample of 400 and a 4.9% margin of error. The survey sample was 54% Republican, 25% Democrat, and 21% Independent, replicating the voter makeup of the state.
Retired Lieutenant Colonel Brian Bengs is a 26-year veteran of the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force. In the Air Force Judge Advocate General’s (JAG) Corps, he prevented corruption as a Federal Ethics Advisor and ensured accountability as a prosecutor. Brian is also a professor who has taught courses at the U.S. Air Force Academy, NATO School Oberammergau in Germany, and Northern State University in Aberdeen, South Dakota, where he resides with his wife and two daughters. Brian announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat in South Dakota due to the events of January 6th, 2021. As a veteran, Brian saw the horrors of authoritarianism around the world and is a part of the pro-democracy coalition.
Brian has built a reputable campaign that is gaining traction in the state. In six months, he has surpassed the money raised by the 2020 nominee for U.S. Senate in the entire cycle. He is endorsed by six former U.S. Senators–Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Sen. Tim Johnson, Sen. Jim Abourezk, Sen. Byron Dorgan, Sen. Kent Conrad, and Sen. Bob Kerrey. He is also endorsed by influential figures in the state including 2018 gubernatorial candidate Billie Sutton, former U.S. Attorneys Brendan Johnson and Randy Seiler, the South Dakota Democratic State House and Senate caucus, and multiple organizations. The campaign has 70 earned media articles published regarding his candidacy. Brian has visited all 9 Indian Reservations in South Dakota as well as all 66 counties. Last month, the first campaign advertisement, a long-form online video received over 1 million combined views within 24 hours. To watch the ad, click here. As a result of such efforts, Sen. Thune was actively campaigning in the state even before the August recess.
Democrats have a history of success in South Dakota. This was Senator George McGovern’s seat. This was Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle’s seat. We can win in South Dakota if we try. South Dakota is perhaps the cheapest media market in the country. If we raise the funds necessary to get our message out across the state, not only can we win, but we can put another Senate seat on the map and help Democrats compete in the heartland once again. To donate, click here.